NFL Week #6 - Bet the Lock, You wont Lose!

Week 6


Ravens @ Patriots -3

The Ravens are a top 3 team in the NFL. I’m very surprised to see that they are getting points here, but I know it is solely because the Patriots are the home team here. The Ravens have all cylinders clicking on both sides of the ball. Ray Rice finally picked it up last week too. This will be the first game the Patriots play without Moss. I like the points for the Ravens here.

Chiefs @ Texans -4.5

The Texans have one of the most potent offenses in the NFL, however were stuffed by the Giants last week. The Chiefs don’t have a defense like the Giants though, but they do have a shut-down corner in Brandon Flowers that could give Andre Johnson some trouble. Look for the Texans to get their top ranked run game back on track against the surprising Chiefs.

Chargers -8.5 @ Rams

The Rams are contending for first in the weak NFC West and that is surprising a lot of people. They are starting to turn that franchise around over there. The Chargers on the other hand are somewhat disappointing as they keep betting themselves up. Their special teams are nonexistent to say the least and that’s what is keeping them from being 5-0. Philip Rivers is on pace to shatter Dan Marino’s single season passing yardage record. I’m sticking to my guns and taking the Chargers here in a bounce back victory.

Lions @ Giants -10

Well the Giants finally stringed together a couple of good defensive games, so I’m on board now. Like I said in earlier weeks, the Lions have been playing some good football this year and it showed in last week’s clobbering of the Rams. The Giants are home but these points are a lot here so I’m sticking with the Lions.

Saints -4.5 @ Buccaneers

The Bucs are on an upswing winning 3 of their last 4 games, granted they were against bottom of the barrel teams. The Saints on the other hand are struggling and are battling in close games with the likes of the winless 49ers and Panthers and losing to the Cardinals. Perhaps the loss of Reggie Bush was more than they could account for. The Saints are still the defending champs, so I still got faith in them here.

Browns @ Steelers -14

Now that Big Ben is done rapin chicks, he can start throwin picks. Nahh, well at least not this week. The Steelers are playing the Browns, who have been somewhat surprising this year due to Peyton Hillis and his beastly arms. Colt McCoy sounds like will be getting the start this week for them. Welcome to the NFL Colt, have fun against one of the topped ranked defenses in the game. The Steelers are going to dominate here.

Seahawks @ Bears -7

The Bears will be getting Jay Cutler back this week, which is good considering Todd Collins threw 4 picks and has a passer rating lower than 10 and still managed to win thanks to the outstanding performance by Matt Forte. The Seahawks are coming off a bye and will look to pull ahead in the NFC West. They acquired Marshawn Lynch from the Bills and will now have a feature back to hopefully compliment their pass game. The Bears may win here, but I don’t think they will cover.

Falcons @ Eagles -3

The Falcons looked impressive all year. They haven’t skipped a beat since their opening day OT lose to the Steelers. They are easily a top 3 team in the league, with a very explosive offense. The Eagles have Kevin Kolb under center again and he will need to prove he is the starter before Vick returns healthy to the line-up for them. Even though the Dirty Birds are away, I like them in the torturous city of Philadelphia.

Raiders @ 49ers -6.5

Congratulations to the Raiders. You have finally managed to beat the Chargers for the first time in about 6 years. I guess they were due. Jason Campbell did step up for the injured Bruce Gradkowski and showed why they brought him in the first place. I think he should remain the starter, but what do I know? The only word to describe the 49ers this year: disappointing. They are winless yet Mike Singletary still believes they will win the division. Win a game first Mike, and then start talking like that. There heavy favorites here, maybe based on Singletary’s words? I’ll take the Raiders.

Jets -3 @ Broncos

Guess I will start to believe in the Jets hype. I may even go as far as saying that they are the best team in the NFL right now. OK, I’m not going that far…yet. The Jets still prove that they can take on any team by beating the Vikings despite giving up their most yards this year. Mark Sanchez continues to improve every week. The Broncos are slowly falling, due largely in part to all the injuries they are sustaining, despite the high-caliber effort of Kyle Orton. The Jets will show why they may be the best team in the league again here.

Cowboys @ Vikings -1.5

Desperate times call for desperate measures and this is that time for both teams. This game is a must win for both teams, however we all know that only one team can win, except if they tie of course. Favre had a chance against the Jets to pull that one off but once again threw a late game pick to seal the deal for them. Some people are calling for the benching of Favre. Really? Do you really think Tarvaris Jackson is a better alternative? Doubtful. The Cowboys cannot seem to figure out how to win a game, even with Tony Homo throwing 400yd games left and right. This games a pick’em and I’m picking the home team here.


Colts -3 @ Redskins

The Colts did not look all too impressive last week against the Chiefs. I guess the only real good they got out of last game was that Adam Vinateri got a lot of game reps in. Peyton will be Peyton for the rest of the year and as long as they have him they’ll be fine. If Donovan McNabb can rally his troops together at home, they may have a shot. That’s a big if though.

Titans -3 @ Jaguars

CJ once again had another fantasy feast of a game, leading the Titans to victory. It didn’t hurt that Vince Young also had 3 touchdown passes in the game as well. The Jaguars have been flying under the radar this year posting a solid 3-2 record thus far with wins over the Broncos, Bills and Colts. Mighty Mouse has been leading the offense, as David Garrard and WR core have not been much to talk about. The Titans always play well against the run and will look to stop MJD at all cost and make Garrard beat them. I’m locking up the Titans this week.

Lock of the Week- Tennessee Titans

Record: 37-37-2 (7-7) Locks- 5 for 5

Week #5: Break Away Time

Week 5


Buccaneers @ Bengals -6.5

The Buccaneers are coming off a bye week, but I don’t think that time off will really help them. They have been struggling a bit, however have showed some signs of life with the games leading up to their bye week. The Bengals come off a disappointing lose to the Browns and will look to rebound here.

Packers -2.5 @ Redskins

The Redskins are coming off an exhilarating win over division rivals, the Eagles, and McNabb will look to keep it up for his team. The Packers are coming off a close win over the Lions, but Aaron Rodgers is one of the best QB’s in the game. The spread is low here, so look for the Packers to cover.

Chiefs @ Colts -8

The Chiefs are coming off a bye week of the most surprising start in the NFL. They will look to continue their ways against the Colts and Peyton Manning, who are surprisingly at the bottom of their division right now. Peyton is playing very well, however the defense is not holding up. I think this will be a lot closer than most people think, thus I’m taking the Chiefs with a higher spread.

Falcons -3 @ Browns

The Falcons are one of the best teams in the NFL right now and it shows. Roddy White and Matt Ryan are on fire. The Browns played some good football last week, beating their division rivals, Cincinnati Bengals. I think the Falcons are just too much for the Browns to handle.

Broncos @ Ravens -7

The Ravens grinded out a good win over the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. Ray Rice has yet to show why he deserved to be a top 5 fantasy pick. The Broncos are playing good football so far, coming off a good win against the mid-level Titans. This spread is pretty high, so I’m taking the Broncos here.

Giants @ Texans -3

The Texans are coming off a win over the Raiders off another big performance from Arian Foster. He has shown that he is a top player in the NFL right now. The Giants are coming off a much needed win over the Bears, a game in which the defense finally stepped up and had their way with Jay Cutler. Eli is still retarded though. Giants win here, with the points.

Rams @ Lions -3

If this was a game last year, I would be talking about how bad both of these teams are and that this may be the only shot for either team to get a win. However this is not last year and I will not be saying that here. Both the Rams and Lions are playing pretty good football. Not top tier football, but pretty good. I’ve been impressed with every game the Lions have played this year, and I’ll be impressed after this game too.

Jaguars -1 @ Bills

This game will be one of those games that the Bills will actually have a chance of winning, and it may be their only win of the year too. Their schedule is really tough, but it doesn’t matter because they are absolute garbage. Maybe if they can get CJ Spiller into the game for once, they could produce some points. The Jaguars are coming off a surprising win over the Colts. Look for them to beat the Bills, for the Jaguars sake.

Bears -3 @ Panthers

The Giants absolutely had their way with Jay Cutler and the rest of the Bears team last week. They will look to bounce back this week against the Panthers, who showed up to play against the Saints last week. The Panthers running game finally showed up, but look for the Bears to be fired up and get a victory here.

Saints -7 @ Cardinals

The Saints are coming off a squeaker against the Panthers off the leg of newly signed veteran John Carney. The Cardinals may be the second worst team in the NFL, next to the garbage Bills. They took out Derek Anderson, a player they believed was better than Matt Leinart, for Max Hall. Who? Exactly! I would have just kept Leinart and let him flop around out there, but apparently they think they can do something with Anderson and Hall. Well, not this week.

Chargers -6 @ Raiders

The Chargers needed their blow-out win against the Cardinals last week to boost their confidence as a team. This will be their second AFC West game, as they are behind in the standings to the Broncos and Chiefs. The Raiders are battling some injuries, as well as some QB controversy, but it looks as if Gradkowski has it sealed for now. The Chargers will continue their winning ways, and hopefully another blowout. I won’t hold my breath though.

Titans @ Cowboys -6.5

The Cowboys got their first win of the year entering into their bye week. Their running game has been abysmal and they need to pick it up in order to contend for the NFC East title. Tony Romo can’t do it all himself every game. I’m picking the Titans because this spread is high and CJ needs to bounce back after his 2nd non-100 yd rushing game of the year.

Eagles @ 49ers -3.5

If Vick doesn’t get hurt, the Eagles give Donovan a rude homecoming and win that game. Kolb did not do poorly in replacing him, but he isn’t the NFC Player of the Month. San Fran almost had it against the Saints, but the good news for them is the defense played like the 49ers D was suppose to play like, holding the high powered Saints to only 16 points. I like the Eagles here with points especially.

Vikings @ Jets -4

The Jets are proving every week that they deserved to talk all the smack they did leading up into the season. It seems as if every week they are getting better. They play another tough game here against the Vikings, who have been the most disappointing team so far. Favre will look to lead his Vikings against his former team, yes the Jets, in hopefully a win that will resurge their season.

Lock of the Week- Atlanta Falcons

Record: 30-30-2 (7-7) Locks- 4 for 4

Contender or Pretender? NFL Week #4 Picks

Week 4


Lions @ Packers -14.5

Losing to the Bears was a bit of a shock to me for the Packers, even with the sloppy game they played. Their running game needs to step up for Rodgers to be as effective as he was last year, which made them a Super Bowl contender. I think they’ll win the game here, but the spread is too much to cover, especially with a Lions team that is putting points on the board and looking impressive this year.

Broncos @ Titans -6.5

The Titans seemed to have their way with the Giants D, scoring on all fronts. CJ had a bounce back game, but did not look as good as Vince Young’s bounce-back performance. The Bronco’s question marks at RB will mean that they will have to really on Kyle Orton, who played relatively well last week. The Titans will get this, but it’ll be a close game so they won’t cover.

Bengals -3 @ Browns

The Bengals are staying competitive in the tough AFC North and with this rivalry game, they will continue to be competitive. The Browns have not really shown anything this season, however with Wallace at QB I feel they have a better fighting chance then with Delhomme. With that said, it still won’t be enough for the Browns to overcome the Bengals in this one.

Panthers @ Saints -13.5

The Saints lost a heartbreaker to the Falcons on a Garrett Hartley missed FG. The Panthers still do not have any potential plan of attack, even with Clausen in now. Look for the Saints to bounce back and score at will against the lowly Panthers.

Ravens @ Steelers -1.5

Charlie Batch was throwing TDs left and right last week in his first start for the Steelers in years. This is going to be a defensive battle, so the team who can battle through will ultimately prevail. Flacco has been somewhat shaky this year so far, even with a nice bounce-back game last week. Look for the Steelers to continue their winning ways.

Jets -4.5 @ Bills

The Jets are turning it around since their disappointing Week 1 loss. This game should be no problem for the Jets as, yes you guessed it, the Bills are still garbage. They did seem to wake up a little bit when Fitzpatrick became the starter, but they are by far the worst team in the NFL. The Jets will easily cover this small spread.

49ers @ Falcons -6.5

It has been quite a shock at how bad the 49ers have been playing. A lot of people predicted them to win the sluggish NFC West, but not at this pass. The Falcons are looking like an elite team in the NFL and coming off a great win against the Saints, they should continue to do so.

Seahawks -1 @ Rams

The first place Seahawks look to stay atop the division going up against the Rams, who are coming off a surprising win against the Redskins. If the Seahawks can keep up their D, look for them to not only win this game handedly, but also stay atop the NFC West.

Colts -8.5 @ Jaguars

Peyton Manning is off to his best start of his career and that’s saying a lot since Peyton has been an elite QB in the league for the last 10 years or so. The Colts as a team on the other hand are struggling a little bit, mostly on the defensive side. They recently have been playing better though. The Jags have no chance here as they have no offensive fire power.

Texans -3 @ Raiders

The Texans suffered a minor bump in their plan to prove the league they are a greatly improved team with the loss to the Cowboys last week, however they get the Raiders this week. Gradkowski gave the Raiders some life, but it won’t be enough here to top the Texans.

Cardinals @ Chargers -8

The Chargers are prone to slow starts in their recent seasons so there should be no red flags here….yet. They usually do step up as the season progresses. They have some ground to make up in the AFC West as the Chiefs are off to a hot start. They should hopefully have no problem here against the Cardinals, however I’d caution with the high spread here.

Redskins @ Eagles -6

This is the game of the week by far. The return of McNabb to Philadelphia could not come any sooner. The Eagles are playing great football and are showing that they are the top dogs in the tough NFC East. Vick is playing like a man on fire. McNabb on the other hand will come out guns blazing. That’s why I’m taking the Redskins here, even though the Eagles will probably win.

Bears @ Giants -3

What is happening with the Giants? They go from a stellar defensive team, to a team that shows up like its playing with 5 people out there. Eli the Magnificant and Ahmad Bradshaw cannot carry the team when the defense is giving up 29 points to a team like the Titans. Cutler has stepped up so far this season and it shows with the Bears being unbeaten so far. I like the Bears here, especially with points.

Patriots -1 @ Dolphins

Brady and Moss have found the connection that led them to a Super Bowl years back. They came up short last week against the Jets. There looking to improve this week especially against division foes. The Dolphins can’t afford to lose any more ground in the tight AFC East. This game could go either way, but look for the Patriots to bounce-back and take it to the Dolphins.

Lock of the Week- New York Jets

Record: 23-23-2 (7-9) Locks- 3 for 3

Get Er Done - Week # 3 Picks

Week 3

Bengals -3 @ Panthers

Looks like the Jimmy Clausen era has officially begun. That didn’t take too long. The Panthers are a struggling team right now, while the Bengals are a team competing to win the AFC North. Look for the Bengals to take the game.

49ers -1 @ Chiefs

The 49ers and Chiefs very well could be in opposite roles right now. The Chiefs are playing like a team that they haven’t seen in years, but how long can they really play this hot streak. I think the trail stops here as the 49ers put up a good effort against the Saints last week in a bounce-back game for the D.

Lions @ Vikings -10.5

Favre and the Vikings are still winless. Who would have thought that? I’m sure this is not what he signed back up for. The Vikings just don’t seem as explosive as they did last year, even with AP running like a beast. The Vikings will win here, but they won’t cover the spread, as surprisingly the Lions are playing very impressive football.

Cowboys @ Texans -2.5

How bout them Cowboys? The better question may be how bout them Texans?? The Texans are finally playing up to their potential on both sides of the ball. The Battle of Texas will be a good one as Big D does not want to lose another game and possibly their coach, but I think the Texans will take this one.

Falcons @ Saints -3.5

The defending champs are truly playing to their form, as they are the best team in football right now. This will be their first big test of the year, as the Falcons are playing some pretty good football too. Matt Ryan and Co. will put up some points, but not enough to overcome the Saints high-powered O.

Steelers -2.5 @ Buccaneers

Three games into the season and the Steelers are on their 3rd different QB. Charlie Batch will take the reins for this game, but I don’t think it will matter for the Steelers. The Bucs are playing good football, but the ship stops here as the Steelers are a much better team than any they faced this year so far. Look for the Steelers to win in usual fashion.

Browns @ Ravens -10.5

The Ravens absolutely exploded last game, and I don’t mean that in a good way. Flacco threw about 7 picks (give or take a few) and Boldin was m.i.a. The D played decent only giving up 15 points. Look for them to bounce back here and put up some points against the lowly Browns.

Titans @ Giants -3

Was the benching of Vince Young really needed? I mean do the Titans really expect to think that Kerry Collins can still play football? CJ saw his 13 game consecutive streak of 100yd rushing come to an end with the loss to the Steelers. The Giants could not even come close to stopping Peyton, but then again that is no easy task. The G-Men will play better than last week, but look for CJ and the Titans to build a little streak of their own here.

Bills @ Patriots -14

Three weeks into the season and yes, the Bills are still garbage. I feel bad for them though. They have played some pretty tough competition and it doesn’t help that they are in the toughest division in football. That being said however, no matter who they put at QB or RB, they are still a horrid team. I wasn’t sure if the Packers could cover last week, but since they did it gives me confidence going into this game, especially with the Pats coming off a loss to the Jets.

Eagles -3 @ Jaguars

This is what I have been waiting for the last 3 years. Vick is a starter again. He is by far the most exciting player to watch in the NFL. The Eagles are coming off a shootout with the Lions, while the Jaguars just got crushed by the Chargers last week. Look for Vick and the Eagles to excite the crowd and the scoreboard.

Redskins -3.5 @ Rams

Sam Bradford has been playing surprisingly well for the Rams, probably much better than anyone expected. McNabb has been playing like the old McNabb and has given some life to the Redskins in the tough NFC East. It seems like they are the team to beat. The Rams will put up a fight, but it won’t be enough to overcome the Redskins.

Chargers -5.5 @ Seahawks

The Chargers finally played like the team that they are suppose to be, scoring in buckets against the Jaguars. Vincent Jackson or not, the Chargers are still going to be throwing the ball like crazy. If Rivers cuts down on the INT’s, he’ll have a career year. The Seahawks did a complete 180 between Week 1 and 2, as they just got decimated by the Broncos. The Chargers are going to put up similar numbers like last week and take the game.

Raiders @ Cardinals -4.5

It wasn’t long before QB’s switch in Oakland, however I don’t know if I agree with the decision. What was the point of bringing Jason Campbell in if Bruce Gradkowski is just going to start again? Analysts said that the team had more life when Gradkowski was in, so I’m gonna play along too with that. The Cardinals have yet to show anything to prove they can win a game, let along score some points.

Colts -5.5 @ Broncos

Peyton Manning seemed unstoppable against little Eli and the Giants. The Broncos D has been playing well but it’s going to be tough to stop Manning and his crew, as usual. Plus the Colts can’t fall behind the Texans in the division this early in the season.

Jets @ Dolphins -1.5

The Jets finally backed up all the talk they had during training camp and held the Patriots in check. I don’t see why they can’t do it to the Dolphins as well, considering the Dolphins are a run heavy team and the Jets have the best run D in the game. The loss of Revis won’t be that much of a factor. The Dolphins have been playing good football, but are not scoring as many points they would need to be the Jets in this game.

Packers -3 @ Bears

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are on a mission this year: to make the Super Bowl and they sure as hell are playing well enough to do so. This is going to be a tough test for them, as last year Rodgers struggled real badly against the Bears. Jay Cutler has been a surprise story this year so far, as he has led the Bears to a 2-0 record. This is going to be a close game, but look for the Packers to continue in their quest for the trophy.

Lock of the Week- Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 16-14-2 (7-8-1) Locks: 2 for 2

NFL Week # 2..surprises surprises

Here they are folks! Your Week #2 NFL Pciks!

Week 2


Eagles -5 @ Lions
The late second loss for the Lions will be disappointing, however I don’t think they can bounce back against a Vick-leaded Eagles offense. He looked good when he came in for the injured Kolb. This should be an exciting game to watch from the Eagles perspective.

Bears @ Cowboys -9
Cutler had an exciting game, as he was second in passing yards in the NFL in Week 1, but that was against the Lions. The Cowboys were below par in their performance against the Skins, and should be looking to bounce back and score some points against the Bears, however this spread may be too much for them to cover

Buccaneers @ Panthers -3
Matt Moore had too many turnovers for the Panthers, as the Jimmy Clausen era may be coming sooner than people think. Their run game looked good against the Giants but I think the Bucs will surprise here, trying to go 2-0.

Chiefs @ Browns -2
Gotta give props to the Chiefs D and special teams that looked awesome against the high-powered offense of the Chargers. The Browns didn’t do anything impressive in Week 1, in what I thought would be a win, against the Bucs. Look for the Chiefs to win the game, without the help of points if they play like last week.

Cardinals @ Falcons -7
It was a tough loss for the Falcons last week against the Steelers. The Cardinals just squeaked by the Rams last week. Look for Roddy White to have another monster game against the Cardinals.

Dolphins @ Vikings -6
The Dolphins held up my Lock Pick for Week 1 by being granted an intentional safety, as they beat the Bills. I thought they would handle them easily and put up more points. The Vikings on the other hand had no problem putting up points against the Saints solid D and should have no problem here.

Steelers @ Titans -5.5
CJ seemed to pick up where he left off from last year, having another monster game. The Steelers won an OT thriller on a Mendenhall 50-yd rush, which really surprised me. The Steelers D is still good, but look for CJ to have another good game in the Titans home opener.

Ravens -1.5 @ Bengals
Seems like the Ravens shocked the world when they beat the Jets last week. They didn’t shock me, in the low-scoring defensive trench war. Rice did not have a productive game, but who would against the Jets D, besides Boldin that is who had 100+yds. The Bengals had a shootout with the Patriots, but look for the Ravens here, especially with this low spread.

Bills @ Packers -14
These games are always tough to pick because a two touchdown spread is a tough swing either way. I’m taking the Packers here because let’s face it, the Bills are still garbage. Rodgers will recover from last week and Jackson will have no problem replacing Grant this week against a lowly Bills D.

Seahawks @ Broncos -3.5
The Pete Carol led Seahawks put up surprising points against a solid 49ers D in Week 1. Hasselback looked like the QB of old, while at the same time Orton for the Broncos put up a near 300yd passing game. Let’s see if the Seahawks can keep it rolling, getting some points here.

Rams @ Raiders -3.5

Campbell will do some good for the Raiders, who have desperately needed a solid QB after Rich Ganon retired (what a name drop). Their home here too so that will help and their also playing the Rams, which helped even more.

Jaguars @ Chargers -7.5
I’m not going to make excuses for the Chargers performance last week, but all I will say that it is tough to throw the ball 40 times in a game with a heavy downpour in your face. Just saying. The Jaguars will be a tough Week 2 opponent as the Chargers have had trouble stopping the run and MJD is as good as anyone in the league. Look for Rivers and the Bolts to bounce back and have a big game to get back to even.

Patriots -2 @ Jets
So Mark Sanchize thinks the Jets are going 15-1 the rest of the way? I don’t think so. They’ll be lucky if they can win 2 games in the next 5 weeks. Their D looked as good as advertised, but it’s that struggling O led by the Sanchize himself that will have Mike Tannenbaum pulling more of his hair out then he did during the Revis negotiations. Looks for Brady and the Pats to squeeze by here.

Texans -3 @ Redskins
What a performance by the Texans. They really surprised everyone by putting the numbers up they did against the Colts. McNabb looked McNabb-like against the Cowboys last week, but I don’t think it will be good enough here. Look for the Texans to stay on a role and make some noise from this week out.

Giants @ Colts -6
Manning v. Manning. A match-up that will be sure to excite Archie beyond belief, I’m sure. A better question to ask then who is going to win the game should be, who will Archie cheer for. Will he play both sides of the fence, or will be take a stand and cheer for his non-retarded looking son? That’s Peyton by the way. Peyton’s pissed about losing to the Texans I’m sure. If he put up 400+yds in that game, imagine what he will do against Eli and the Giants? 500+?? Don’t be surprised if he puts up numbers like Week 1 again.

Saints -6 @ 49ers
The Saints looked good against the Vikings in Week 1. The 49ers on the other hand, did not look good against the Seahawks. I wish Alex Smith the best as he has been through a lot in his life, but he needs to play like he did in the final weeks of the season last year if he wants to keep his job. The 49ers D also went M.I.A. They’ll show up here, but not enough to stop the Saints.

Lock of the Week- Kansas City Chiefs

Record: 9-6-1 (9-6-1)

Don’t Bet On the Jets

With Super Bowl aspirations coming into the year, I personally cannot see how the Jets can expect to be a .500 team, let alone a Super Bowl contender. Though the recent season of Hard Knocks offered some interesting and exciting Jets entertainment, their performance in first game was nothing to write home about, showing an anemic offense and an undisciplined secondary.

The Jets D did what they are known to do, slowing down a pretty talented Raven’s group, however, despite their efficiently up front, a glaring weakness in the Jets defensive coat of armor was exposed. Penalties and an inexperienced defensive back in Kyle Wilson allowed Flacco to slice up the Jets in the passing game. With long completions to Heap and Boldin, Flacco was able to overcome the poor field position that the Raven’s continually had to fight against and help Baltimore squeak out a win.

Exciting football for a Monday night marquee matchup? Not at all.

The Jets almost had more penalty yards than yards on offense, with the refs truly being the stars of this match up. 176 total yards for the Jets, with only 74 yards passing. Ouch!

Now, with a defensive like the Jets have you can expect them to win some games, however, until Sanchez can grow up a little bit, I do not see how this team can consider itself Super Bowl bound, or even play off bound for that matter. Pretty pathetic display if you ask me and now with NFL.com reporting breaking news that Chris Jenkins is out for the year (ACL tear), the Jets D beings to look a little softer up front.

With the next 5 games being New England, Miami, Buffalo, the Vikings, and Denver it is feasible to think the Jets could be 2-4 or even 1-5 going into their week #7 bye. Scary stuff for a team with such high hopes.

Are the Jets headed to the AFC east basement?? Oh wait, they already are there!

Let me know how you feel about this, because from where I’m sitting, the Jets have some serious work to do if they want to make some noise this year.

Lesbian Love Fest invades the Wild Wild West

On my recent trip to AC last weekend, I witnessed something that I only would have imagined in Vegas..An Asian Lesbian Love Fest!


Weird? Yes!
Intriguing? Not at All!

There is no arguing that the Asian culture monopolizes the casino floor, but this was certainly a first! Six butch ladies, practically getting it on at the blackjack table, taking away from the minimal ambiance that Bally’s offers ruining the gambling experience.

Now, I say to each their own, but this was seriously disgusting.

I don’t know how you all may feel about this, but imagine sitting at a table trying to play a game, and having these six, butt uglies, falling all over the place and slowing down the game.

Let me know what you think, because I was seriously going off the wall with this and wanted to make sure that I wasn’t crazy.

Fools Gold

To Split or Not to Split – Is that really even a question?


While playing Blackjack or Spanish 21, I have often seen young, reckless players split a hand of 20. Though this often creates frustration for the table, I have routinely pondered if this move is worth it. Is it wise to break up the second best possible hand in hopes of obtaining two equally strong, if not stronger hands?

My answer…No!

Looking at an 8-shoot deck of regular Blackjack (no card counting implied), there are 128 cards with a face value of 10. Now let us imagine that the player is the only one playing, has a hand of 20, with the dealer having an up card anywhere from a 2-9. With this scenario, it mathematically does not make sense to split up the 20 as the player has only a 30% chance of getting 1 additional 10 and a 9% chance that they will get 2 additional 10s. Now imagine that a number of 10’s have already come out of the deck from previous hands, and chances for success drop even more!

So why do players split 20’s then? It’s called gambling folks!

Now, my argument against splitting 10s goes far beyond the poor mathematical probability is offers for success. The more glaring instance I have seen, in my abbreviated gambling career, is where one lucky, well not so lucky better, split his 10s, got two hands of 20, only to see the dealers 12 turn into a 21.

Therefore, my argument against not splitting 10s is to just play the game like it’s supposed to be played. Hit when you are supposed to hit and stand when you are supposed to stand. Remember, there are other people at the table too, who often have a lot more wagered then some hot shot who will split 10s. Gambling is more fun when you win, so play the game like it should be played and sit back and let the winnings pile up.

Asian Invasion

Busses of Asians bring boat loads of trouble in PA.

For as long as one can remember, gambling has often been intertwined with Las Vegas, flashy/high class shows, and…..Asians?

Yes..it is true. No culture embraces gambling more than Asians. Though Las Vegas is the proclaimed Mecca of the gambling world, the shores of Macau has become the new gambling hop spot, offering hot action and behemoth casinos.

The Las Vegas Sands, which has hedged its future on its brand new Macau palace, has also ventured into the Pennsylvania gambling arena, with the opening of the PA Sands at the site of the old Bethlehem Steel. With its proximity to the city (1.5 hours to NYC and Philly), partaking in the gambling fun is merely a car or bus trip away.

Now, the majority of casino goers that have ventured over to the PA Sands, are there to take in the sights and sounds. However, according to information obtained from a third party source employed at the casino, theft and thievery has become a reoccurring problem, especially within the Asian community.

Thinking back a few months, there was a story that made the front page of the local newspapers, where a supposedly friendly Asian woman was helping elderly casino goers withdraw funds from the various ATM’s scattered around the casino floor. Now I am not exactly sure how money ended up being stolen, however, it was reported that this “helpful” lady would steal the pin numbers of those she was supposedly helping, making off with significant sums of money. She was eventually caught when her elderly victims realized funds were missing from their accounts and the PA Sands security team used video surveillance to trace the thievery to this individual.

Problem solved, right? Not exactly.

Recently, casino thievery has reverted back to the old pick-pocket style, and according to the source, has become a very common theme. This makes sense when you look and see that the Sands has three security guards at ever entrance to apply wristbands to younger casino goers, while having poor floor presence where the actual gaming is taking place.

The new tactic:

According to my casino source, what he and others have been seeing quite frequently is that the bus loads of Asians have not only been brining gamblers to the casino, but also thieves. The tactic being employed? Overcrowding at table games, which creates uncomfortably close situations/contact and allows for an experienced pick-pocketer to loot while all the while being undetected.

According to the source, this has happened on multiple occasions, with the thieves appearing to be male, as the emptied wallets are found stuffed in the paper towel dispensers in the men’s bathroom. No arrests have been reported to date for these instances.

Therefore, I say, next time you venture to the PA Sands, bring keep your wallet closely guarded, because if the casino doesn’t steal all your money, you can bet that these thieves will.

Pick - Em NFL Week #1 Picks

Week 1


Vikings @ Saints -5
I like the Vikings here. Yes the Saints are the defending Super Bowl Champs but I never really believed into their hype with their D especially. Considering the Vikings are getting 5 points here, take them.

Dolphins -3 @ Bills
The Bills are garbage. They have no firepower on offense and they have a Swiss-cheese D. With the Dolphins only giving 3 points, I think this is a steal.

Raiders @ Titans -6.5
The Titans are clearly the better team here, yet the Raiders D is getting stronger. The Titans should win this game with CJ hopefully dominating, but I don’t know if they can cover. Take the Titans cautiously.

Broncos -2.5 @ Jaguars
I don’t like Kyle Orton as a QB and I don’t think that Moreno can carry the whole team. MJD will be running everywhere. I like the Jags, especially getting points.

Panthers @ Giants -7
If Eli doesn’t play as retarded as he looks, the Giants will be a good team. If the D can step up and play better then last year, I don’t see why they can’t win here, especially giving a touchdown. Giants.

Colts -2.5 @ Texans
Can’t see why this spread is so small. The Texans do have a high power offense and play well against the Colts, but I mean who can deny Peyton. The Colts will go as far as he can take them. Take the Colts confidently.

Falcons -2.5 @ Steelers
The Steelers are going to struggle without Big Ben, as I don’t think there good enough without him. I like the Falcons here, but its going to be a close game I think.

Browns @ Bucs -2.5
This game sucks. It’s two bottom barrel teams going at it, when in the end may come down to that respective team’s only win for a while, however if I had to pick, I’d take the new and improved Browns.

Bengals @ Patriots -4.5
T.O and Ocho can’t talk there way to a win here, as the Patriots will be the team in this game. I don’t think the points will be tough to cover here, there two powerful of an offense.

Lions @ Bears -6

This may be a shocker here, but I like the Lions here. It may be the only time I’ll think they can win compete, but the Bears are not the Bears of old and 6 points is a lot to cover.

Packers -3 @ Eagles
Two very good teams here, but Aaron Rodgers is their post-Favre savior. He scores in bunches and is a fantasy god. 3 points should be nothing for the Packers to cover.

49ers -3 @ Seahawks
I want to see what Pete Carol brings to the table before I jump on board. Plus the 49ers D is a force and Frank Gore is going to be a monster for them. 49ers.

Cardinals -3.5 @ Rams
The retirement of Warner will not be good for the Cardinals, as Derek Anderson is not a starting QB in the NFL. I like them here solely because they are playing the lowly Rams.

Cowboys -3.5 @ Redskins
The Redskins will give good competition to the NFC East this year with a coach who can handle the high-money players down there, but the Cowboys are still a better team. Cowboys are good here.

Ravens @ Jets -2.5
It’s going to be a hard-knock first game for the Jets in Week 1. The Ravens are going to be a force in the AFC this year. The Jets have a great D, especially with Revis signed, but the Ravens match-em in that department, but have the better QB of the teams. Ravens win here with the points.

Chargers -4.5 @ Chiefs
Ahhh the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers are going to score at will in this game, as Rivers is going to come out looking strong. The question will be if their D can stop them and look like a great D should look like. Chargers win the game and cover the spread here.

Lock of the Week- Dolphins

Are you kidding me?!?!

Did that really happen?!?

This weekend, while at the blackjack table I saw probably one of the dumbest moves I've seen in a long time. 

Hitting on a 17!!!

Stupid kid not only busted with a 27 but also took the dealers bust card away, and that dealer 12 turned into a 19, beating the entire table rather than a 22 and a table win. 

Selfish? Yes
Stupid? Definitely

This was just a common theme this weekend and AC, a place where players  usually have a basic understanding of the game, looked more like the Bethlehem Sands, where every novice and moron comes to play. 

Frustrating? You bet? 

You just don't expect this level of stupidity. 

Please share your gambling stupidity stories!! 

Sunday Funday - Superbowl 45 odds

College football has begun, the NFL preseason is wrapping up and the big time betting is about to begin. Popular these days are the weekly picks, however, the real money is ready to be made by those who can pick the 2011 Superbowl champ prior to the first play from scrimmage. 

At the top are the perennial powerhouse Colts. With Peyton at the helm this team is almost guaranteed a spot in the playoffs, however, at 13 to 2 odds, I would shy away from this team. Good? Always. The best? Early, often, but rarely sustained. 

Following up on their amazing run in 2009/2010, the Saints are a close second at 7 to 1 odds. Possibility for a repeat is there, but it will be tough for both Breese and that defense to repeat their performances from last year. Last time the Saints were this good they had a mediocre showing the following year. Though I do not expect a poor repeat performance, my expectation for this team is a second round exit to the Packers as Aaron Rodgers finally rakes control of the NFC over an aging and almost blind Favre. 

Tied for third are Da Boys and the Bolts at 17 to 2. Are you kidding me?!?! The last time the Cowboys were regarded so high, Romo got hurt and they finished a mediocre 9 -9, getting trounced by the Eagles on the last game of the year, with a spot in the playoffs on the line. Now let me tell you, I was there and that wasn't even a game. Playoffs for Da Boys this year!? I'd say so. Superbowl run? Most likely not. Face it, they won their first playoff game last year since '95 only to watch the Vikings D turn Romo into their b****. Cowboys ousted conference championship by the.....Packers, my pick at 9 to 1, but more about that in a bit. 

The bolts look good to win the AFC. No more LT distraction out there, and granted they get off to a good start for once, an easier road through the playoffs. Rivers is a true leader and the Chargers have a strong offensive attack, solid defensive core, and adequate coaching. Chargers over the Colts when Peyton's last drive comes up short.

Now for my Superbowl pick. At 9-1, the Packers offer good odds. Aaron Rodgers has shown the ability not only to win, but lead and with a crippled Farve in his division, the Packers chances are that much better. Granted the o-line can keep Rodgers off his back and healthy, the Packers have a solid young core on both sides of the field with a winning qb. My prediction: Packers over the Bolts 27-24

Don't sleep on: Patriots

Tom terrific is going to lead to Patriots to a great season and with a certain key player returning, they should provide some exciting football. With The Revis situation in NYC, the Patriots will find the path to the post season a lot less bumpy, with a strong possibility that they could make some serious noise this year. 

Puck Off - Sports Bet Extra

The sport of hockey, arguably, has the most grueling schedule in all of sports. From the start of training camp, it takes about 9 months to win the holy grail of all sports trophies, the Stanley Cup. As time progresses, injuries, trades, etc, change the outlook for all teams. It takes a little bit of skill, mixed with a lot a bit of luck in order to be the team that gets to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup. The luck is extremely important for not only the players vying to be the best, but also for the gamblers looking to win big. Having basic knowledge of the sport does not help win money, unless you’re lucky, or you’ve been betting on one team for the last 35 years. This isn’t a hockey blog, so I won’t bore you with Sidney Crosby’s jock strap, or Alexander Ovechkin’s…..these. What I will give you is the information you need to formulate an opinion on how to best spend your money. Thus, I present to you my NHL team breakdown for gambling purposes.


The West:

The only 3 teams worth looking at are the Vancouver Canucks, San Jose Sharks, and Detroit Red Wings.

Everybody else:

As far as the 3 teams I’ve listed as potential winners are concerned, the real team worth betting on is the Detroit Red Wings. The Vancouver Canucks spent millions this year upgrading their defense, but when push comes to shove in Roberto Luongo’s crease, he won’t be able to handle it. Teams already know the way to beat them is by crowding his crease. Therefore, they won’t make it beyond the conference finals. The San Jose Sharks are a perennial cup contender that just can’t cut it come April. However, the kink in their armor (Evgeni Nabokov) is finally gone, and they have a proven cup winning goalie with a chip on his shoulder signed for this upcoming year in Antti Niemi. However, their defense is not nearly as deep as in past years, and this is what will make them fall short. The Detroit Red Wings, in my opinion, are the deepest, most cup capable team that can come out of the West. With the additions of Veteran, American, and former Olympian Mike Modano (a.k.a. Mr. Willa Ford- seriously, google her), as well as Jiri Hudler, who’s back from Russia, the Red wings are 4 lines deep, with the defense and goaltending from their win 3 seasons ago. Personally, I believe this is the team to bet on. The Champions of this past season, the Chicago Blackhawks were at 6 to 1 odds, but this is a sucker bet. They’re bringing back 12 of the 22+ players it took to win the cup, and replacing them with rookies and low priced veterans that nobody else wanted. There is no possible way they make it past the first round.

Where I put my $100- Detroit Red Wings (13 to 1 odds on bodog.com)

The East:

There are multiple teams in the Western Conference that can be deemed powerhouses, however very few have the makings of a Champion. There are 4 potential teams that can make it out of the East; the Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals, Boston Bruins, and Philadelphia Flyers. The Devils are often considered part of this group, but aside from Zach Parise, Martin Brodeur, and Ilya Kovalchuk (big assumption, I know), theres nothing there. They will make the playoffs because they’re the New Jersey Devils, but after that, don’t buy any round 2 tickets for Newark. Of the 4 previous teams listed, the Capitals are a sucker bet. Last season, they couldn’t make it past the first round even though they had 28+ NHL ready players on their roster. Last I checked they were 7.5 to 1, which is a sucker bet to go along with the Blackhawks in the west. Once the opposing team shuts down Ovechkin, they shut down the Capitals. Next please…The Boston Bruins are definitely going to be among the best in the East. They have 3 lines of offensively capable players, and the goaltending of a contender, but the defense is suspect. Without any midseason acquisitions, they won’t be playing for the Cup come June. Therefore, its down to the Pennsylvania boys; Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Any team looking to win the cup will have to come through Pennsylvania first. Both teams have great defenses, quite easily top 3 in the league. Forwards are about even; The Penguins have two of the best players in the league, but the Flyers are deeper on the wings, so that’s a wash. Goaltending is going to make or break both teams. It’s difficult to choose between both teams, and it will all be based upon luck as far as injuries are concerned.

Where I put my $100- $50 on Pitt, $50 on Philly.

So there you have it, it’s a 3 horse race; Detroit, Philly, and Pittsburgh. With separate bets on each team, you should come out ahead. Again, trades, injuries, contract cancellations, hot streaks, etc, could all have bearing on what happens to any of the 30 teams. Hopefully with this breakdown, you should now be able to make an informed decision on where you want to put your money.

The Devil’s Game

All of you roulette and gambling enthusiast out there have probably heard at one time or another, that the casino is the Devil’s playground. Gamblers, often sitting at tables for hours on end, bet all but their soles for a chance at riches, with no clocks on the walls to tell you how much of your life has been wasted and cold air running across the casino floor to keep you awake.
Personally, I think that such statements are over dramatic and nonsense as the majority of casino goers frequent these establishments for the pure enjoyment and excitement that gambling can offer. Though it is inevitable that someone, somewhere out there is betting money they shouldn’t, most gamblers, novice and experienced alike, are rational individuals who eventually know when to stop.

Despite knowing this, it is hard to overlook one glaring and freaky fact about gambling and in particular, roulette, that will make a chill run up any gamblers back. When adding up all the numbers on a roulette wheel, American and European style alike, it equals 666. This coincidence, along with roulette’s high house edge, gives this game a very inauspicious feel. Black and Red spaces on the wheel, numbers adding up to 666, it is all very creepy if you ask me, especially when the ledged says that roulette’s creator made a deal with the devil to obtain eh secrets of the game.

Therefore, I have to say that this one is still open for debate, however, knowing this is enough to keep this gambler at the blackjack tables, as any way you slice it, 21 is a lot luckier than 666.

A Numbers Game

Though each spin of the roulette wheel is an isolated event and there is no system that will beat the wheel in the long-run, I am sure that anyone who has taken a seat at a table has seen a pattern of repeating or “hot” numbers in short-period time. On an American style roulette wheel, each number has a 1 in 38 or 2.6% chance of coming up. As past spins do not affect future results, as in the game of blackjack, these odds hold true for each and every spin. Therefore, how is it that we often see certain numbers come up multiple times in a short period of time, or even back to back?
The answer: Coincidence

The 1 in 38 odds are based off the expected return in the long-run. Just as flipping a coin has a 50/50 chance of coming up either heads or tails, often times there will be streaks in the short-run that temporarily conquer the expected long-term results. For example, after the first ten flips of a coin it might be 7 heads and 3 tails, however the more the coin is flipped, it is likely that the two results will begin to approach each other, ultimately evening out.

In the game of roulette, a winning number does not need to be selected every spin in order to be successful. Based on a payout of 36 to 1, picking a number that slightly beats the expected odds and comes up just 1 in every 35 spins, will make you a winner. As it is possible to win a game of chance in the short-run, my proposed strategy for roulette is to pick a number, or set of numbers, hope for luck, and play them consecutively. If you so happen to pick a “hot” number or set of numbers, then during that time period, you will see your winnings increase quickly. My recommendation however, understanding that odds even out in the long-run, is not to fall in love with a specific number of set of numbers, because what is hot now, will ultimately cool off.

I recommend going to a roulette table, watching a few spins and then sitting down with your chips in hand. Bet on a number or group of numbers you wish, and in the event that lady luck smiles your way and you beat the expected odds a few times, change your group and start again. I never recommend chasing a set of numbers in hopes of hitting it big, however, based on how the odds play out in the long-run, if you happen to hit a certain number or group of numbers multiple times in a short-period, the prudent and wise move is to switch to a new group and starting the process all over again.

Games of chance, such as roulette, require lots of luck to generate large returns, however, understanding the long-run odds and the short-term possibilities, it is very possible to have a profitable night betting at the wheel.

Sports Bet Extra - NBA Finals 2011

NBA championship odds 2011

Recently the NBA odds for the 2011 champions came out and as was to be expected, the Heat, with their star studded trio are tops at 8 to 5 odds while the two time defending champ Lakers are at 3 to 1. 

It is hard to fathom how the 2x repeating champs can be second to a team that has not played one minute on the court together. In an offseason full of drama and Lebron's "decision" (seriously what a pompous joke that was) it just seems crazy how this team can already be anointed as the best. 

To get a true idea of how these teams stack up, I say, look at it on a position by position basis.

At the point, the Lakers have the most clutch #1 in the game, while the Heat line up three year starter Mario Chalmers. Though Mario did have a big moment in the NCAA championship, his accolades and skill set do not compare with Fish. Lakers 1 - Heat 0

At the two guard it's hard to argue against D-Wade, however that argument turns pretty one sided when it's Kobe lacing up his sneakers opposite. D-Wade is good but this one is no contest. Lakers 2 - Heat 0

At the three spot, the Heat finally get on the board, which is easy when you have the best player in the world in Lebron. Now I'm pretty sure that Artest would win in a street fight or dodgeball game, however, on the hardwood this one goes hands down to Lebron. Lakers 2 - Heat 1.

At the power forward spot, the choice is pretty tough. Not. Bosh was a star on a team on nobodies while Pau was dominant in a tougher conference while having to share with Kobe. Pau put the Lakers over the top two years ago and it's clear to see how he can dominate both offensively and on the glass. Bosh might win best hair, but Pau's got the upper hand skill wise. Lakers 3 - Heat 1

Lastly, at the center spot the Lakers have one of the most dominating young men in the game while the Heat are still trying to figure this on out. Old vet ilgauskas? I hope not! Granted Bynum stays healthy, this is no contest. Lakers 4 - Heat 1

There you go. My take on the new big three and how the Heat and Lakers match up. Nothing will be decided until the two match up on the court, but I find it hard to root against the 2x defending NBA champs. Lebron is good, but he's also a joke, without the ability to lead. Maybe after the Heat are bounced out of the playoffs by the Lakers, or even worse, the Magic, then Lebron can go waste another hour on tv and we can call it "the reaction"

So if I had to pick, at 3 to 1 odds I'd say the Lakers look pretty good, but I wouldn't sleep on the Thunder out west as they are young, fast, and talented. 

American Greed - The Decline of Roulette

Random Fact: Black 17 is the most popular roulette number as that was the number James Bond bet on.


In my opinion, with the exception of slot machines that glitter the Vegas strip, roulette is the quintessential casino game, combining an elegant look with a simplistic setup. As time has shown, there is no strategy that will ultimately beat the wheel in the long-run, with the rules of luck governing this game, rather than the laws of physics. Betting is as easy as placing a chip on a color, number, etc., with tantalizing odds and large winnings merely one hot streak away. With its long history and iconic status, it’s hard to see why roulette is a slowly losing favor in American casinos.

Roulette traces its roots back to Europe, some 300+ years ago, however the game that most American gamblers are familiar with is not true roulette. Though the wheels look similar, with the same principles as to wining and loosing, American and European (French) roulette differ in one important way: The House Edge. The American style roulette wheel, with its 38 spaces (18 red, 18 black, 2 green) offers gamblers poorer odds when compared to a European style wheel, with its 37 spaces (18 red, 18 black, 1 green). Both styles have the same payout, however, with the American wheel, the odds are more in favor of the house due to the added 00. House odds on an American style wheel are 5.26%, making it one of the poorest returning games in a casino, with there being only a 2.7% house edge on a European Wheel. Therefore, when comparing these odds to more popular American casino games (Blackjack at 0.63% and Craps at 1.40%), it is clear to see why roulette is slowly loosing favor in America as there are numerous games available with just as much excitement and better odds.

American greed by Vegas and Atlantic City casinos has undermined the popularity and success of this gambling classic, and though it is highly unlikely that roulette will vanish from the casino floors, increased popularity in poker and other upstart casino games has significantly reduced its appeal. Recent measures have been taken by casinos to maintain roulette’s popularity, employing games such as rapid roulette, which combine the traditional rules of an American style wheel, with the added appeal of a fast moving game. Recent trips to Atlantic City during the summer months have shown that this style of roulette is popular, with all seats around the table often full, however, take a trip during an off-peak season and you will often have no problem finding an open seat or two.

The status quo in the gambling world is no longer the old reliable. Though Roulette is one of the most popular games worldwide, the American adaptation of the wheel has done nothing but reduce the games popularity and drive up participation in other games, often times games with lower house edges. Therefore, I think it would be beneficial for the game of roulette, the casinos, and the gamblers if American casinos would use more European style wheels to create a better mix throughout casinos. Players would benefit from a lower house edge, which would improve roulette’s popularity, while casino’s would improve their take as players moved from lower house edge games (i.e. craps) back to Roulette.

The goal of a casino is to take as much from the gambler as possible while maintaining a repeat customer and tough a small step, the addition of European style roulette wheels to American casino floors can only improve the overall gaming experience and quality of the industry by preserving a gambling classic and adding additional variety to the casino floor.

Martingale System – Perfection in an Imperfect World

"No one can possibly win at roulette unless he steals money from the table while the croupier isn't looking." — Albert Einstein
Fact – In the long-run, there is no betting system that will overcome the house edge.

The Martingale System of betting, tracing its roots back 18th century France, is a simple strategy that requires the bettor to double their bet after each loss. In its simplest form, this strategy will generate positive results, because no matter how many losses the bettor has in a row, a single win will recover all previous losses in addition to a profit equal to the first bet.

In order to be successful, the Martingale systems makes two important assumptions.

1. The bettor has an endless bankroll
2. There is no maximum on the table.

Understanding that both assumptions do not hold true in a real world scenario, it is easy to see how the Martingale system will fail over the long time.

When starting with a $5 minimum bet, after eight consecutive losses using this system, wagers will begin to deplete any gamblers bankroll and additional bets would likely cross above the table maximum. The table below outlines the betting system with various minimums, showing that no matter which minimum denomination is chosen, the potential for significant loses is high, while potential winnings remain low.

With American roulette, a player has a 47.4% chance of hitting on an even-money bet such as red/black or odd/even. It is important to remember however that every spin of the roulette wheel is an isolated event and though some believe in patterns, with roulette and other games such as craps, past events do not predict future outcomes. Therefore, though even money bets carry a 47.4% chance that the gamble will hit, there are also strong probabilities that extended losing streaks will occur. On the average, for every 73, 150, and 250 consecutive spins that a gambler places a wager on, there is a 50.3%, 77.2%, and 91.1% chance, respectively, that they will run into a losing streak of at least six consecutive spins. Combining the high probability of failure with the low expected return from the Martingale system and it is clear to see why this system provides a negative return in the long-run.

When it comes to trying to use a betting system to conquer the house edge, remember, countless gamblers before have tried the same tactics and have met the same fate that you ultimately will. There is no secret way to beat a casino with roulette and though the Martingale systems provides, what in theory, appears to be a plausible betting strategy, remember, it is ultimately a flawed strategy, with the promise of a minimal return in exchange for a sizeable loss. Therefore, my recommendation to any roulette enthusiast out there is go out and find a game with a smaller house edge than roulette or just hope to be lucky. For more information on the Martingale system and its practicality in the real world, check out The Wizard of Odds.

Weekend Question

What is your favorite casino game and why?

Summer Sun Equals Gambling Fun, But at What Cost?

Though gambling is a 12-month affair, here in New Jersey, when the Summer season starts to heat up, so does the gaming action. With its shore-front location, Atlantic City offers gamblers a chance to pair their gaming fun with some down time at the beach, a shopping trip at the near-by outlets, or a stroll up the boardwalk. However, with the rise in temperatures, visitors are often met with an unwanted summer phenomena, increased prices as far as the eye can see.
Stretching from lodging, to table minimums, and even food, local casinos and businesses take advantage of the increased foot traffic and visitation that the summer season brings in order to increase their revenue. Desirable room comps all but vanish for your average players, with hotel prices soaring higher with the temperatures as casinos try and squeeze every last drop of money out before temperatures and tourism begin to cool off. At the height of the summer, it is almost impossible to find affordable rooms, that will not wipe out your gambling bank roll.

For a last-minute deal at the Borgota for this Saturday, rates start at $458/room. Though the Borgota is considered to be one of the more upscale hotels in Atlantic City, opening in 2003, with 2,000+ guest rooms, at such high prices, your average gambler would need to have an above average night in order to recoup the room costs. When you start in such a big hole, it takes almost all of the fun out of the experience, because, even a small loss at the tables equals a large loss for the trip.

In the past, there were few alternative options to enjoying the Atlantic City gambling experience without reaching deep into your pocket to pay for the rooms at the casinos. With the increase in local chain and independent hotels, paying high prices for a bed and a bathroom at a casino no longer has to be the norm. Online travel websites, such as Priceline and Expedia, offer a reprieve from high prices, providing high quality amenities, at low costs. From personal experience, by using Priceline and the Name Your Own Price option, on a Saturday Night, in the middle of June, I was able to get a $400+ room for a mere $52 plus taxes. Many initially think that in order to get such a good deal, you have to book a place far away from the bright lights and action of the AC boardwalk. Well, those who thought that were all wrong. Though I was not able to see which hotel I was booking until after the process, by doing a little research and finding out the quality, location and price range I was looking for, I was able to book a room right on the boardwalk and next to the Tropicana at the beautiful 3 ½ star Chelsea Hotel. This turned out to be a pretty sweet deal when compared to the $300/night room prices Caesars and Bally’s were looking for, saving me money, with there being no sacrifice for service or quality.

Staying in or close to the casinos allow for late nights and extended gambling, however, remember, there is no longer the need to sacrifice your gambling bank roll to pay for an over-priced room at a casino. When casino comps fall short, do not settle for paying what the casinos are demanding. Using websites such as Priceline and Expedia prove that you don’t have to sacrifice quality and fun to save a few bucks. With a little bit of research, affordable gambling is only a mouse click away. Wouldn’t you rather lose your money at the tables, where at least you have the chance to win it back, then spend it all up front on a room? Smart planning equals fun gambling and though the summer will bring hotter temperatures and ultimately higher prices, summer gambling does not have to empty your bank account.

Thank you to all that have visited Splitting Aces during its first week, I appreciate your support going forward. Please don’t hesitate to offer comments, advice, or topics that you would like to see and hear more about.

Check back in next week for a week of posts dedicated entirely to Roulette. Spin it to Win It will cover the basics from rules and odds, to advanced betting strategies in an effort to improve your knowledge of the game and ultimately your chances at the wheel.

Thanks again and I look forward to hearing from you.

ACES Wild

A winning bet for comfort and service.

Every year, as Memorial Day comes and goes, the summer season kicks into full gear. Families begin taking their annual vacations at the Jersey Shore and others jet out of town for weekend getaways. With all the warm weather and enjoyment that the summer weather brings, it also drags along impenetrable traffic jams and headaches that can lead to extreme frustration and sour any trip before it begins. For any traveler who has tried to navigate the Garden State Parkway on a Friday afternoon, in hopes of fleeing for the weekend, it is likely that they have been caught up in the slow moving traffic caused by heavy volume and poorly-timed road work. Remedies for effectively navigating the summer travel traffic are few and far between. Bus services, such as Lakeland Bus Lines, based out of Dover, NJ, take away the hassle of driving yourself, however, have no means of avoiding the inevitable traffic and are often slower moving, while trying to fly into the Atlantic City Airport is often not a practical alternative.

Since 1960, direct train service to Atlantic City, the city that is always turned on, was nothing but a mere memory. That was however, until 2009, when Caesars, Harrah’s, and the Borgota joined forces with NJ Transit and Amtrak to create the Atlantic City Express Service (ACES for short) connecting Manhattan and Newark with Atlantic City. The newly formed service, offering weekend service only, from Friday-Sunday, runs three trips a day (seasonally adjusted) between Penn Station, NY and the Atlantic City Rail terminal. With a price starting at $29 each way, the ACES train provides travelers with an affordable way to get off the highways and into a little piece of luxury. Traveling on the ACES train takes roughly between two and a half and three hours, however, unlike sitting in a car parked on the highway, travelers have the ability to recline and rest, get up and stretch, purchase a wide range of food and beverages (including alcohol) as well as upgrade to “first-class” and luxury packages at an additional cost. After arriving in Atlantic City, travelers are greeted with complimentary connecting service from the train station to either of the three ACES sponsoring casinos. In addition to this free service, local bus service is also readily available via any of the NJ Transit bus stops, with various rental car agencies within walking distance.

The hardest part of gambling should never be getting to the casino. Therefore, win, lose, or draw, if you are in the New York or Newark areas, put your travel in the friendly hands of ACES and get more enjoyment out of your trip!

Good luck and happy gambling!

For additional information, including complete pricing and schedules, visit the ACES website at http://www.acestrain.com/.

Odds Are - You Lose!

Ask any experienced gambler if they are skilled at the games they play and the bets they make, and nine times out of ten, the answer will be a resounding Yes. With the exception of card counters, who can manipulate the house odds and sway the advantages in their favor, experienced gambles often have the misconception that they possess a special quality that will allow them to overcome the house odds and therefore be a winner most, if not every time. Take a quick look at this website to see the house odds per game (www.insidervlv.com/casinoodds.html) and it is clear to see that though basic skill is needed when partaking in traditional table games, luck is the main factor in determining success at a casino.

Though casinos are the proverbially playgrounds for adults, offering thrills and excitement not found in other venues, their main revenue source is gaming wagers. Casinos remain a business, offering a wide array of attractive services and amenities, with two goals in mind, taking as much money from their patrons as possible, while at the same time, maintaining repeat customers. Gamblers often hype up their big wins, while at the same time downplaying, if not completely putting their past losses in the background. This habit creates the fake reality that the gambler has the ability to overcome the house odds, which keeps the allure of the casino bright and the reality of the win/losses blurry. By over estimating their good fortune, gamblers are drawn back to the casinos with the expectation of winning big in the short-term, often forgetting that they are doomed to lose over time. Remember, casinos are a business, a big one at that, and though they have struggled of late, if they were handing out money as easily as some think, then the industry would have no sustainability.

Losses are unavoidable as luck comes and goes like the wind, however, there are ways that smart gamblers can limit losses in hopes of maximizing their winnings going forward. Outlined below are some general tips that I feel are most important to remember when gambling in order to have a good time and manage your bank roll. For a more complete list I suggest checking out this site (http://www.ildado.com/gambling_do.html)

1. Start with the minimum/low bet. If you have good luck it is always easier to increase your bet going forward. If you start high and have bad luck, your bank roll is often depleted before you have a chance to hit a hot streak.

2. Don’t be greedy and have fun: Remember, the house edge will take over at some time and though luck may be on your side now, eventually the casino’s odds will come into play and before you know it, big winnings could quickly diminish

3. Never bet more than you can afford and set a limit: This one is self explanatory. If you don’t have the money to bet big, then don’t, and if you have financial obligations outside of your casino trip (rent, mortgage, car payments), then limit your losses so that both you and your bank account are better off.

4. Don’t be afraid to bet: If you are afraid to bet then you obviously have a better use for the money in your hand and a casino is not the right place for you.

Remember, gambling is not a get rich quick scheme, but a hobby, like any other, with making money being a very real possibility. The house does maintain its small edge on every game, and though lady luck may be your ally one day, she is as fickle as the wind. Approach the tables with knowledge, have a strategy, and remember, win or lose, play with your head and do not let your emotions control you.

For additional tips and resources try the following links.
http://www.gambleversity.com/
http://americancasinoguide.com/Tips/gaming_tips.shtml

Viva......Lehigh Valley?

Bethlehem Sands – A lose lose situation for gambling and service.




With the close of the second quarter and the introduction of table games to PA in July, two things were learned: local residents thoroughly enjoying having a full scale casino nearby and no casino is complete until its floors are covered with classic table games. The sudden euphoria that has taken over the gambling world in the Lehigh Valley has created such excitement that has significantly helped the local casino’s revenue and profits, but at the same time created a poor gambling atmosphere, where minimums are high and service is poor. The exclusivity offered by places such as Las Vegas, and even Atlantic City, is no longer the norm, with the upstart casino in the Lehigh Valley, as well as its longer turned neighbor up in the Poconos allowing, both novice and experienced gamblers to take in the sights and sounds, but at an elevated cost.

Prior to the arrival of table games in PA, the Bethlehem Sands had been an underperforming piece of the Las Vegas Sands Corp’s., global puzzle. With slot revenue failing to impress on a consistent basis, 80 employees were let go, and with their departure, so disappeared the basic client services one would expected at any casino: drink services and a clean environment. Despite minimal incentives to spur playing, the Bethlehem Sands saw stark improvement through late spring/early summer, positing its best quarter to date as it earned $3.7mm in profit and anxiously anticipated the higher demand that the mid-July unveiling of table games would bring. Patience and persistence proved to be profitable, with July revenue coming in at the highest levels ever for the casino, despite table games only in operation during the final two weeks of the months.

As table games have improved foot traffic through the casino, they have also created a number of unhappy patrons. Unlike its Atlantic City and Last Vegas counterparts, minimums for common games such as blackjack and roulette often are often upwards of $25k, where as in AC and Vegas, these games can be found for as low as $5, if not lower. In addition to the high minimums, at peak times, the casino can often be found operating at half to two-thirds capacity, leaving hoards of gamblers wandering and waiting for extended periods, in hopes that they will eventually get a chance to partake in the action. Despite these high minimums, it appears that the Sands’ approach, if you want to play you’re going have to pay, is working, as local residents, so thrilled with the idea of having a full service casino so close, are willing to make the those large wagers in order to gamble. The Bethlehem Sands has turned gambling into a more common, every day thing as it is no longer something you plan a vacation around, but what you plan a night out around.

For the near term, the Bethlehem Sands should continue to thrive, as table games remain the hot ticket item, the resort portion is completed and local/national retail shops being moving into the slowly renovated south side of Bethlehem. But unlike a diamond, the thrill of this casino will not last forever, and as patrons slowly succumb to the house odds with those high minimum bets, patronage will suffer and changes will need to be made. A lackluster experience does not have sustainability in today’s world and tough the Bethlehem Sands is offering something that Lehigh Valley residents have never had before, a local casino, it is still light-years away from matching the history, prestige, service, and excitement offered by the bright lights of Vegas and Atlantic City. Therefore, I say that if you want to have an exciting and close by gambling experience, head down the AC expressway and enjoy what places such a Caesars, the Borgota, and the Taj can offer. Until changes are made in Bethlehem, the best bet remains somewhere else.

Check out the sites below for some fun gaming action:
http://www.harrahs.com/index.shtml
www.theborgata.com/