Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Sports Bet Extra - NBA Finals 2011

NBA championship odds 2011

Recently the NBA odds for the 2011 champions came out and as was to be expected, the Heat, with their star studded trio are tops at 8 to 5 odds while the two time defending champ Lakers are at 3 to 1. 

It is hard to fathom how the 2x repeating champs can be second to a team that has not played one minute on the court together. In an offseason full of drama and Lebron's "decision" (seriously what a pompous joke that was) it just seems crazy how this team can already be anointed as the best. 

To get a true idea of how these teams stack up, I say, look at it on a position by position basis.

At the point, the Lakers have the most clutch #1 in the game, while the Heat line up three year starter Mario Chalmers. Though Mario did have a big moment in the NCAA championship, his accolades and skill set do not compare with Fish. Lakers 1 - Heat 0

At the two guard it's hard to argue against D-Wade, however that argument turns pretty one sided when it's Kobe lacing up his sneakers opposite. D-Wade is good but this one is no contest. Lakers 2 - Heat 0

At the three spot, the Heat finally get on the board, which is easy when you have the best player in the world in Lebron. Now I'm pretty sure that Artest would win in a street fight or dodgeball game, however, on the hardwood this one goes hands down to Lebron. Lakers 2 - Heat 1.

At the power forward spot, the choice is pretty tough. Not. Bosh was a star on a team on nobodies while Pau was dominant in a tougher conference while having to share with Kobe. Pau put the Lakers over the top two years ago and it's clear to see how he can dominate both offensively and on the glass. Bosh might win best hair, but Pau's got the upper hand skill wise. Lakers 3 - Heat 1

Lastly, at the center spot the Lakers have one of the most dominating young men in the game while the Heat are still trying to figure this on out. Old vet ilgauskas? I hope not! Granted Bynum stays healthy, this is no contest. Lakers 4 - Heat 1

There you go. My take on the new big three and how the Heat and Lakers match up. Nothing will be decided until the two match up on the court, but I find it hard to root against the 2x defending NBA champs. Lebron is good, but he's also a joke, without the ability to lead. Maybe after the Heat are bounced out of the playoffs by the Lakers, or even worse, the Magic, then Lebron can go waste another hour on tv and we can call it "the reaction"

So if I had to pick, at 3 to 1 odds I'd say the Lakers look pretty good, but I wouldn't sleep on the Thunder out west as they are young, fast, and talented. 

American Greed - The Decline of Roulette

Random Fact: Black 17 is the most popular roulette number as that was the number James Bond bet on.


In my opinion, with the exception of slot machines that glitter the Vegas strip, roulette is the quintessential casino game, combining an elegant look with a simplistic setup. As time has shown, there is no strategy that will ultimately beat the wheel in the long-run, with the rules of luck governing this game, rather than the laws of physics. Betting is as easy as placing a chip on a color, number, etc., with tantalizing odds and large winnings merely one hot streak away. With its long history and iconic status, it’s hard to see why roulette is a slowly losing favor in American casinos.

Roulette traces its roots back to Europe, some 300+ years ago, however the game that most American gamblers are familiar with is not true roulette. Though the wheels look similar, with the same principles as to wining and loosing, American and European (French) roulette differ in one important way: The House Edge. The American style roulette wheel, with its 38 spaces (18 red, 18 black, 2 green) offers gamblers poorer odds when compared to a European style wheel, with its 37 spaces (18 red, 18 black, 1 green). Both styles have the same payout, however, with the American wheel, the odds are more in favor of the house due to the added 00. House odds on an American style wheel are 5.26%, making it one of the poorest returning games in a casino, with there being only a 2.7% house edge on a European Wheel. Therefore, when comparing these odds to more popular American casino games (Blackjack at 0.63% and Craps at 1.40%), it is clear to see why roulette is slowly loosing favor in America as there are numerous games available with just as much excitement and better odds.

American greed by Vegas and Atlantic City casinos has undermined the popularity and success of this gambling classic, and though it is highly unlikely that roulette will vanish from the casino floors, increased popularity in poker and other upstart casino games has significantly reduced its appeal. Recent measures have been taken by casinos to maintain roulette’s popularity, employing games such as rapid roulette, which combine the traditional rules of an American style wheel, with the added appeal of a fast moving game. Recent trips to Atlantic City during the summer months have shown that this style of roulette is popular, with all seats around the table often full, however, take a trip during an off-peak season and you will often have no problem finding an open seat or two.

The status quo in the gambling world is no longer the old reliable. Though Roulette is one of the most popular games worldwide, the American adaptation of the wheel has done nothing but reduce the games popularity and drive up participation in other games, often times games with lower house edges. Therefore, I think it would be beneficial for the game of roulette, the casinos, and the gamblers if American casinos would use more European style wheels to create a better mix throughout casinos. Players would benefit from a lower house edge, which would improve roulette’s popularity, while casino’s would improve their take as players moved from lower house edge games (i.e. craps) back to Roulette.

The goal of a casino is to take as much from the gambler as possible while maintaining a repeat customer and tough a small step, the addition of European style roulette wheels to American casino floors can only improve the overall gaming experience and quality of the industry by preserving a gambling classic and adding additional variety to the casino floor.

Monday, August 30, 2010

Martingale System – Perfection in an Imperfect World

"No one can possibly win at roulette unless he steals money from the table while the croupier isn't looking." — Albert Einstein
Fact – In the long-run, there is no betting system that will overcome the house edge.

The Martingale System of betting, tracing its roots back 18th century France, is a simple strategy that requires the bettor to double their bet after each loss. In its simplest form, this strategy will generate positive results, because no matter how many losses the bettor has in a row, a single win will recover all previous losses in addition to a profit equal to the first bet.

In order to be successful, the Martingale systems makes two important assumptions.

1. The bettor has an endless bankroll
2. There is no maximum on the table.

Understanding that both assumptions do not hold true in a real world scenario, it is easy to see how the Martingale system will fail over the long time.

When starting with a $5 minimum bet, after eight consecutive losses using this system, wagers will begin to deplete any gamblers bankroll and additional bets would likely cross above the table maximum. The table below outlines the betting system with various minimums, showing that no matter which minimum denomination is chosen, the potential for significant loses is high, while potential winnings remain low.



With American roulette, a player has a 47.4% chance of hitting on an even-money bet such as red/black or odd/even. It is important to remember however that every spin of the roulette wheel is an isolated event and though some believe in patterns, with roulette and other games such as craps, past events do not predict future outcomes. Therefore, though even money bets carry a 47.4% chance that the gamble will hit, there are also strong probabilities that extended losing streaks will occur. On the average, for every 73, 150, and 250 consecutive spins that a gambler places a wager on, there is a 50.3%, 77.2%, and 91.1% chance, respectively, that they will run into a losing streak of at least six consecutive spins. Combining the high probability of failure with the low expected return from the Martingale system and it is clear to see why this system provides a negative return in the long-run.

When it comes to trying to use a betting system to conquer the house edge, remember, countless gamblers before have tried the same tactics and have met the same fate that you ultimately will. There is no secret way to beat a casino with roulette and though the Martingale systems provides, what in theory, appears to be a plausible betting strategy, remember, it is ultimately a flawed strategy, with the promise of a minimal return in exchange for a sizeable loss. Therefore, my recommendation to any roulette enthusiast out there is go out and find a game with a smaller house edge than roulette or just hope to be lucky. For more information on the Martingale system and its practicality in the real world, check out The Wizard of Odds.

Saturday, August 28, 2010

Friday, August 27, 2010

Summer Sun Equals Gambling Fun, But at What Cost?

Though gambling is a 12-month affair, here in New Jersey, when the Summer season starts to heat up, so does the gaming action. With its shore-front location, Atlantic City offers gamblers a chance to pair their gaming fun with some down time at the beach, a shopping trip at the near-by outlets, or a stroll up the boardwalk. However, with the rise in temperatures, visitors are often met with an unwanted summer phenomena, increased prices as far as the eye can see.
Stretching from lodging, to table minimums, and even food, local casinos and businesses take advantage of the increased foot traffic and visitation that the summer season brings in order to increase their revenue. Desirable room comps all but vanish for your average players, with hotel prices soaring higher with the temperatures as casinos try and squeeze every last drop of money out before temperatures and tourism begin to cool off. At the height of the summer, it is almost impossible to find affordable rooms, that will not wipe out your gambling bank roll.

For a last-minute deal at the Borgota for this Saturday, rates start at $458/room. Though the Borgota is considered to be one of the more upscale hotels in Atlantic City, opening in 2003, with 2,000+ guest rooms, at such high prices, your average gambler would need to have an above average night in order to recoup the room costs. When you start in such a big hole, it takes almost all of the fun out of the experience, because, even a small loss at the tables equals a large loss for the trip.

In the past, there were few alternative options to enjoying the Atlantic City gambling experience without reaching deep into your pocket to pay for the rooms at the casinos. With the increase in local chain and independent hotels, paying high prices for a bed and a bathroom at a casino no longer has to be the norm. Online travel websites, such as Priceline and Expedia, offer a reprieve from high prices, providing high quality amenities, at low costs. From personal experience, by using Priceline and the Name Your Own Price option, on a Saturday Night, in the middle of June, I was able to get a $400+ room for a mere $52 plus taxes. Many initially think that in order to get such a good deal, you have to book a place far away from the bright lights and action of the AC boardwalk. Well, those who thought that were all wrong. Though I was not able to see which hotel I was booking until after the process, by doing a little research and finding out the quality, location and price range I was looking for, I was able to book a room right on the boardwalk and next to the Tropicana at the beautiful 3 ½ star Chelsea Hotel. This turned out to be a pretty sweet deal when compared to the $300/night room prices Caesars and Bally’s were looking for, saving me money, with there being no sacrifice for service or quality.

Staying in or close to the casinos allow for late nights and extended gambling, however, remember, there is no longer the need to sacrifice your gambling bank roll to pay for an over-priced room at a casino. When casino comps fall short, do not settle for paying what the casinos are demanding. Using websites such as Priceline and Expedia prove that you don’t have to sacrifice quality and fun to save a few bucks. With a little bit of research, affordable gambling is only a mouse click away. Wouldn’t you rather lose your money at the tables, where at least you have the chance to win it back, then spend it all up front on a room? Smart planning equals fun gambling and though the summer will bring hotter temperatures and ultimately higher prices, summer gambling does not have to empty your bank account.

Thank you to all that have visited Splitting Aces during its first week, I appreciate your support going forward. Please don’t hesitate to offer comments, advice, or topics that you would like to see and hear more about.

Check back in next week for a week of posts dedicated entirely to Roulette. Spin it to Win It will cover the basics from rules and odds, to advanced betting strategies in an effort to improve your knowledge of the game and ultimately your chances at the wheel.

Thanks again and I look forward to hearing from you.

Thursday, August 26, 2010

ACES Wild

A winning bet for comfort and service.

Every year, as Memorial Day comes and goes, the summer season kicks into full gear. Families begin taking their annual vacations at the Jersey Shore and others jet out of town for weekend getaways. With all the warm weather and enjoyment that the summer weather brings, it also drags along impenetrable traffic jams and headaches that can lead to extreme frustration and sour any trip before it begins. For any traveler who has tried to navigate the Garden State Parkway on a Friday afternoon, in hopes of fleeing for the weekend, it is likely that they have been caught up in the slow moving traffic caused by heavy volume and poorly-timed road work. Remedies for effectively navigating the summer travel traffic are few and far between. Bus services, such as Lakeland Bus Lines, based out of Dover, NJ, take away the hassle of driving yourself, however, have no means of avoiding the inevitable traffic and are often slower moving, while trying to fly into the Atlantic City Airport is often not a practical alternative.

Since 1960, direct train service to Atlantic City, the city that is always turned on, was nothing but a mere memory. That was however, until 2009, when Caesars, Harrah’s, and the Borgota joined forces with NJ Transit and Amtrak to create the Atlantic City Express Service (ACES for short) connecting Manhattan and Newark with Atlantic City. The newly formed service, offering weekend service only, from Friday-Sunday, runs three trips a day (seasonally adjusted) between Penn Station, NY and the Atlantic City Rail terminal. With a price starting at $29 each way, the ACES train provides travelers with an affordable way to get off the highways and into a little piece of luxury. Traveling on the ACES train takes roughly between two and a half and three hours, however, unlike sitting in a car parked on the highway, travelers have the ability to recline and rest, get up and stretch, purchase a wide range of food and beverages (including alcohol) as well as upgrade to “first-class” and luxury packages at an additional cost. After arriving in Atlantic City, travelers are greeted with complimentary connecting service from the train station to either of the three ACES sponsoring casinos. In addition to this free service, local bus service is also readily available via any of the NJ Transit bus stops, with various rental car agencies within walking distance.

The hardest part of gambling should never be getting to the casino. Therefore, win, lose, or draw, if you are in the New York or Newark areas, put your travel in the friendly hands of ACES and get more enjoyment out of your trip!

Good luck and happy gambling!

For additional information, including complete pricing and schedules, visit the ACES website at http://www.acestrain.com/.

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Odds Are - You Lose!

Ask any experienced gambler if they are skilled at the games they play and the bets they make, and nine times out of ten, the answer will be a resounding Yes. With the exception of card counters, who can manipulate the house odds and sway the advantages in their favor, experienced gambles often have the misconception that they possess a special quality that will allow them to overcome the house odds and therefore be a winner most, if not every time. Take a quick look at this website to see the house odds per game (www.insidervlv.com/casinoodds.html) and it is clear to see that though basic skill is needed when partaking in traditional table games, luck is the main factor in determining success at a casino.



Though casinos are the proverbially playgrounds for adults, offering thrills and excitement not found in other venues, their main revenue source is gaming wagers. Casinos remain a business, offering a wide array of attractive services and amenities, with two goals in mind, taking as much money from their patrons as possible, while at the same time, maintaining repeat customers. Gamblers often hype up their big wins, while at the same time downplaying, if not completely putting their past losses in the background. This habit creates the fake reality that the gambler has the ability to overcome the house odds, which keeps the allure of the casino bright and the reality of the win/losses blurry. By over estimating their good fortune, gamblers are drawn back to the casinos with the expectation of winning big in the short-term, often forgetting that they are doomed to lose over time. Remember, casinos are a business, a big one at that, and though they have struggled of late, if they were handing out money as easily as some think, then the industry would have no sustainability.

Losses are unavoidable as luck comes and goes like the wind, however, there are ways that smart gamblers can limit losses in hopes of maximizing their winnings going forward. Outlined below are some general tips that I feel are most important to remember when gambling in order to have a good time and manage your bank roll. For a more complete list I suggest checking out this site (http://www.ildado.com/gambling_do.html)

1. Start with the minimum/low bet. If you have good luck it is always easier to increase your bet going forward. If you start high and have bad luck, your bank roll is often depleted before you have a chance to hit a hot streak.

2. Don’t be greedy and have fun: Remember, the house edge will take over at some time and though luck may be on your side now, eventually the casino’s odds will come into play and before you know it, big winnings could quickly diminish

3. Never bet more than you can afford and set a limit: This one is self explanatory. If you don’t have the money to bet big, then don’t, and if you have financial obligations outside of your casino trip (rent, mortgage, car payments), then limit your losses so that both you and your bank account are better off.

4. Don’t be afraid to bet: If you are afraid to bet then you obviously have a better use for the money in your hand and a casino is not the right place for you.

Remember, gambling is not a get rich quick scheme, but a hobby, like any other, with making money being a very real possibility. The house does maintain its small edge on every game, and though lady luck may be your ally one day, she is as fickle as the wind. Approach the tables with knowledge, have a strategy, and remember, win or lose, play with your head and do not let your emotions control you.

For additional tips and resources try the following links.
http://www.gambleversity.com/
http://americancasinoguide.com/Tips/gaming_tips.shtml

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Viva......Lehigh Valley?

Bethlehem Sands – A lose lose situation for gambling and service.




With the close of the second quarter and the introduction of table games to PA in July, two things were learned: local residents thoroughly enjoying having a full scale casino nearby and no casino is complete until its floors are covered with classic table games. The sudden euphoria that has taken over the gambling world in the Lehigh Valley has created such excitement that has significantly helped the local casino’s revenue and profits, but at the same time created a poor gambling atmosphere, where minimums are high and service is poor. The exclusivity offered by places such as Las Vegas, and even Atlantic City, is no longer the norm, with the upstart casino in the Lehigh Valley, as well as its longer turned neighbor up in the Poconos allowing, both novice and experienced gamblers to take in the sights and sounds, but at an elevated cost.

Prior to the arrival of table games in PA, the Bethlehem Sands had been an underperforming piece of the Las Vegas Sands Corp’s., global puzzle. With slot revenue failing to impress on a consistent basis, 80 employees were let go, and with their departure, so disappeared the basic client services one would expected at any casino: drink services and a clean environment. Despite minimal incentives to spur playing, the Bethlehem Sands saw stark improvement through late spring/early summer, positing its best quarter to date as it earned $3.7mm in profit and anxiously anticipated the higher demand that the mid-July unveiling of table games would bring. Patience and persistence proved to be profitable, with July revenue coming in at the highest levels ever for the casino, despite table games only in operation during the final two weeks of the months.

As table games have improved foot traffic through the casino, they have also created a number of unhappy patrons. Unlike its Atlantic City and Last Vegas counterparts, minimums for common games such as blackjack and roulette often are often upwards of $25k, where as in AC and Vegas, these games can be found for as low as $5, if not lower. In addition to the high minimums, at peak times, the casino can often be found operating at half to two-thirds capacity, leaving hoards of gamblers wandering and waiting for extended periods, in hopes that they will eventually get a chance to partake in the action. Despite these high minimums, it appears that the Sands’ approach, if you want to play you’re going have to pay, is working, as local residents, so thrilled with the idea of having a full service casino so close, are willing to make the those large wagers in order to gamble. The Bethlehem Sands has turned gambling into a more common, every day thing as it is no longer something you plan a vacation around, but what you plan a night out around.

For the near term, the Bethlehem Sands should continue to thrive, as table games remain the hot ticket item, the resort portion is completed and local/national retail shops being moving into the slowly renovated south side of Bethlehem. But unlike a diamond, the thrill of this casino will not last forever, and as patrons slowly succumb to the house odds with those high minimum bets, patronage will suffer and changes will need to be made. A lackluster experience does not have sustainability in today’s world and tough the Bethlehem Sands is offering something that Lehigh Valley residents have never had before, a local casino, it is still light-years away from matching the history, prestige, service, and excitement offered by the bright lights of Vegas and Atlantic City. Therefore, I say that if you want to have an exciting and close by gambling experience, head down the AC expressway and enjoy what places such a Caesars, the Borgota, and the Taj can offer. Until changes are made in Bethlehem, the best bet remains somewhere else.

Check out the sites below for some fun gaming action:
http://www.harrahs.com/index.shtml
www.theborgata.com/