Martingale System – Perfection in an Imperfect World

"No one can possibly win at roulette unless he steals money from the table while the croupier isn't looking." — Albert Einstein
Fact – In the long-run, there is no betting system that will overcome the house edge.

The Martingale System of betting, tracing its roots back 18th century France, is a simple strategy that requires the bettor to double their bet after each loss. In its simplest form, this strategy will generate positive results, because no matter how many losses the bettor has in a row, a single win will recover all previous losses in addition to a profit equal to the first bet.

In order to be successful, the Martingale systems makes two important assumptions.

1. The bettor has an endless bankroll
2. There is no maximum on the table.

Understanding that both assumptions do not hold true in a real world scenario, it is easy to see how the Martingale system will fail over the long time.

When starting with a $5 minimum bet, after eight consecutive losses using this system, wagers will begin to deplete any gamblers bankroll and additional bets would likely cross above the table maximum. The table below outlines the betting system with various minimums, showing that no matter which minimum denomination is chosen, the potential for significant loses is high, while potential winnings remain low.

With American roulette, a player has a 47.4% chance of hitting on an even-money bet such as red/black or odd/even. It is important to remember however that every spin of the roulette wheel is an isolated event and though some believe in patterns, with roulette and other games such as craps, past events do not predict future outcomes. Therefore, though even money bets carry a 47.4% chance that the gamble will hit, there are also strong probabilities that extended losing streaks will occur. On the average, for every 73, 150, and 250 consecutive spins that a gambler places a wager on, there is a 50.3%, 77.2%, and 91.1% chance, respectively, that they will run into a losing streak of at least six consecutive spins. Combining the high probability of failure with the low expected return from the Martingale system and it is clear to see why this system provides a negative return in the long-run.

When it comes to trying to use a betting system to conquer the house edge, remember, countless gamblers before have tried the same tactics and have met the same fate that you ultimately will. There is no secret way to beat a casino with roulette and though the Martingale systems provides, what in theory, appears to be a plausible betting strategy, remember, it is ultimately a flawed strategy, with the promise of a minimal return in exchange for a sizeable loss. Therefore, my recommendation to any roulette enthusiast out there is go out and find a game with a smaller house edge than roulette or just hope to be lucky. For more information on the Martingale system and its practicality in the real world, check out The Wizard of Odds.