A Numbers Game

Though each spin of the roulette wheel is an isolated event and there is no system that will beat the wheel in the long-run, I am sure that anyone who has taken a seat at a table has seen a pattern of repeating or “hot” numbers in short-period time. On an American style roulette wheel, each number has a 1 in 38 or 2.6% chance of coming up. As past spins do not affect future results, as in the game of blackjack, these odds hold true for each and every spin. Therefore, how is it that we often see certain numbers come up multiple times in a short period of time, or even back to back?
The answer: Coincidence

The 1 in 38 odds are based off the expected return in the long-run. Just as flipping a coin has a 50/50 chance of coming up either heads or tails, often times there will be streaks in the short-run that temporarily conquer the expected long-term results. For example, after the first ten flips of a coin it might be 7 heads and 3 tails, however the more the coin is flipped, it is likely that the two results will begin to approach each other, ultimately evening out.

In the game of roulette, a winning number does not need to be selected every spin in order to be successful. Based on a payout of 36 to 1, picking a number that slightly beats the expected odds and comes up just 1 in every 35 spins, will make you a winner. As it is possible to win a game of chance in the short-run, my proposed strategy for roulette is to pick a number, or set of numbers, hope for luck, and play them consecutively. If you so happen to pick a “hot” number or set of numbers, then during that time period, you will see your winnings increase quickly. My recommendation however, understanding that odds even out in the long-run, is not to fall in love with a specific number of set of numbers, because what is hot now, will ultimately cool off.

I recommend going to a roulette table, watching a few spins and then sitting down with your chips in hand. Bet on a number or group of numbers you wish, and in the event that lady luck smiles your way and you beat the expected odds a few times, change your group and start again. I never recommend chasing a set of numbers in hopes of hitting it big, however, based on how the odds play out in the long-run, if you happen to hit a certain number or group of numbers multiple times in a short-period, the prudent and wise move is to switch to a new group and starting the process all over again.

Games of chance, such as roulette, require lots of luck to generate large returns, however, understanding the long-run odds and the short-term possibilities, it is very possible to have a profitable night betting at the wheel.